Latin America could become this century’s commodity superpower | European countries have no idea how to woo India | Could economic indicators give an early warning of a war over Taiwan?

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You Might Like � � � You Might Like � � � � � � � � � Don't like ads? Go ad-free with TradeBriefs Premium Latin America could become this century's commodity superpower - The Economist    THE GROUND approaching the salt flats in Chile’s Atacama desert is pockmarked with white crystals. Underneath sit vast deposits of lithium salts, the ore for the soft, light metal used to make high-capacity batteries. Pumps run by SQM, a Chilean company that is the world’s leading producer of the stuff, hum as they pull up mineral-rich brine. In evaporation ponds, the liquid forms a patchwork of emerald and blue on the blindingly bright crust. The operation is the start of a supply chain that ends in the lithium batteries that power electric vehicles (EVs). The global EV fleet will grow at least ten-fold by 2030, to 250m, according to the International Energy Agency, a forecaster. Since 2018 SQM’s annual lithium output has tripled to 180,000 tonnes, a quarter of the global total, and it will probably rise to 210,000 tonnes by 2025. Latin America is no stranger to supplying the world with raw materials, but it could be on the verge of a boom. Three forces are pushing the region to become this century’s commodity superpower. The green transition is increasing demand for metals and minerals that Latin America has in large supply, as well as the renewable energy to process them. The region already supplies more than a third of the world’s copper, used in wiring and wind turbines, and half of its silver, a component of solar panels. Its fertile land produces enough grain, animals, coffee and sugar to help feed a growing global population. And lastly, geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are causing countries to look fondly upon investing in a relatively neutral region. Continued here European countries have no idea how to woo India - The Economist    CHINA’S BELLIGERENT turn under Xi Jinping and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had many unforeseen consequences, from a crisis over a spy balloon to reinvigorating NATO. One of the most significant side-effects of the new age of aggressive autocracies has been a push by the West to draw India closer. In June Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, undertook a state visit to Washington, where he was feted by the White House, Congress and business leaders alike. Europe, too, has been trying to get cosier. Last month Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, hosted Mr Modi for a state visit. In February Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, made a trip to Delhi, India’s capital, followed in March by Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister. Soon after the war began last year, Ursula von der Leyen made her first official visit as president of the European Commission, bringing seven European foreign ministers in tow. Ministers and officials from Hungary, Spain and the Nordics have also beaten a path to Delhi. America is courting India partly because it wants to deepen business links with the world’s fastest-growing major economy. But close ties with India are also important to its strategy for dealing with Mr Xi. The White House hopes that India can become an alternative base for supply chains as they diversify away from China. And it wants to strengthen security ties with India, whose relations with China have been fraught in recent years. During Mr Modi’s visit in June the two countries signed a number of defence deals, including to manufacture jet engines in India. Crucially, President Joe Biden refrained from criticising Mr Modi on his government’s human-rights record or the erosion of democratic norms. Continued here You Might Like � � � � � � � � � Could economic indicators give an early warning of a war over Taiwan? - The Economist    In the early 1980s, during a tense period in the cold war, the Soviet Union feared that America and its allies were considering a nuclear strike and went looking for warning signs. The KGB’s list of indicators ranged well beyond the military sphere. Big campaigns to donate blood, the slaughter of livestock and the movement of art might signal that an attack was coming. Today a new kind of cold war pits America against China. And again analysts are looking for signs of a potential conflict. The most likely flashpoint is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims and America supports. Were China planning to invade Taiwan, its military preparations would be hard to hide. But before troops begin to muster, other actions, of an economic and financial nature, might signal China’s intent. The Soviet Union mistook ordinary activities, such as blood drives, for possible indicators of war. When it comes to China, finding signals in the noise is even harder. The country has spent decades improving its armed forces. It routinely stockpiles food. And it has hardened its economy against potential sanctions. All of these actions have fed fears of war—yet they do not necessarily mean that one is imminent. The challenge for Western intelligence agencies, then, is to imagine how China might deviate from this wary baseline in the run-up to an actual attack. Continued here

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