Saturday, December 2, 2023

How a ‘brain coach’ might help you beat the odds of developing dementia | Germany is in a bizarre fiscal mess of its own making | Oil prices could reach $100 a barrel in 2024 if OPEC+ members fulfil pledges for voluntary cuts | Anduril unveils Roadrunner, "a fighter jet weapon that lands like a Falcon 9" | TechCrunch

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Germany is in a bizarre fiscal mess of its own making - The Economist   

Germany mAY pride itself on its fiscal prudence, but over the past fortnight it has been in the grip of a bizarre fiscal panic. At the heart of the drama lies the much-revered “debt brake”, a constitutional clause that limits the country’s budget deficit, but which the government has resorted to circumventing through a series of special funds. On November 15th the country’s constitutional court ruled that one such wheeze to finance €60bn ($66bn), or 1.5% of GDP, in climate spending was illegal, jeopardising all the financing done in this way.

The consequences have been shambolic. As lawmakers have scrambled to plug fiscal holes, members of the ruling coalition have resorted to squabbling and the opposition are divided, too. On November 28th Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic chancellor, promised in the Bundestag that some fixes would be found. The government will invoke an emergency clause to ensure its spending for 2023 passes legal muster, but there was no explanation of where the money for future years would come from. Because of its obsession with its debt rule, Europe’s largest economy now looks unable to revive domestic demand, to finance an energy transition or to achieve its geopolitical aims. Unless Germany can lead by example, other countries in Europe are unlikely to offer more aid for Ukraine.

The strange thing is that the fiscal mess has nothing to do with economics. Germany is the envy of the rich world because it still has room to borrow. Its public debts are equivalent to about 65% of GDP, compared with an average of 90% across the oecd club of mostly rich countries. And the case for investing is crystal clear. Its growth is lagging behind its peers’; after decades of neglect, its infrastructure desperately needs refreshing. Because the benefits of such spending accrue over time, debt finance, which smooths the costs of investment, makes sense.

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