Saturday, December 2, 2023

A new age of the worker will overturn conventional thinking | The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge cooled in October, and Wall Street believes it may signal ‘interest rate cuts are on the horizon’ | Do You Really Need to Shower Every Day? | Perfectionists Need to Embrace Failure

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A new age of the worker will overturn conventional thinking - The Economist   

Few ideas are more unshakable than the notion that the rich keep getting richer while ordinary folks fall ever further behind. The belief that capitalism is rigged to benefit the wealthy and punish the workers has shaped how millions view the world, whom they vote for and whom they shake their fists at. It has been a spur to political projects on both left and right, from the interventionism of Joe Biden to the populism of Donald Trump. But is it true?

Even as the suspicion of free markets has hardened, evidence for the argument that inequality is rising in the rich world has become flimsier. Wage gaps are shrinking. Since 2016 real weekly earnings for those at the bottom of America’s pay distribution have grown faster than those at the top. Since the covid-19 pandemic this wage compression has gone into overdrive; according to one estimate, it has been enough to reverse an extraordinary 40% of the pre-tax wage inequality that emerged during the previous 40 years. A blue-collar bonanza is under way.

Across the Atlantic, such trends are more nascent, but still apparent. In Britain wage growth has been healthier at the bottom of the jobs market; in continental Europe wage agreements are building in higher increases for the lower paid. Long-running trends in inequality are being questioned, too. A decade ago Thomas Piketty, a French economist, became a household name by arguing that it had surged. Now increasing weight is being given to research which finds that, after taxes and government transfers, American income inequality has barely increased since the 1960s.

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The Fed's favorite inflation gauge cooled in October, and Wall Street believes it may signal 'interest rate cuts are on the horizon' - Fortune   

The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge cooled in October. For Wall Street, it’s yet another sign that the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, may be willing to end his more than 20-month-long interest rate hiking campaign sooner rather than later. 

That’s great news for consumers and businesses, which have struggled to cope with rising borrowing costs and inflation over the past few years. Fast-growing companies, in particular,  often rely on debt to invest in their expanding businesses, and the end of interest rate hikes would remove a significant earnings headwind for them going into 2024. The prospect of interest rate cuts would be even better for their shares. Not only would many companies get a boost to earnings due to lower borrowing rates, but investors’ alternatives to stocks—mainly Treasuries and corporate bonds—would provide a lower return. That would mean more money flowing into the stock market.

The signs of a turnaround in inflation were clear in the latest inflation data released Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by less than 0.1% in October, and just 3% from a year ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. That’s compared with a 3.4% year-over-year jump in September. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose just 3.5% from a year ago in October, down from 3.7% the previous month.

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