I'm a rational optimist. Here's why I don't believe in an AI doomsday. We live in interesting times. The systems of today are powerful. They can write, paint, direct, plan, code, and even write passable prose. And with this explosion of capabilities, we also have an explosion of worries. In seeing some of these current problems and projecting them into future non-extant problems, we find ourselves in a bit of a doom loop. The more fanciful arguments about how artificial superintelligence is inevitable and how they’re incredibly dangerous sit side by side with more understandable concerns about increasing misinformation. It’s as if we’ve turned the world into a chess game. In chess, you rarely keep playing up until the moment you actually checkmate someone. You only play until the inevitability of that checkmate becomes clear. It might still happen 10, 15, or 30 moves down the road, but the players can see it coming.
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