Friday, November 3, 2023

Silicon Valley May Never Learn Its Lesson | Iran Can’t Afford a Regional War | How to Capitalize on Generative AI | Can America’s weapons-makers adapt to 21st-century warfare?

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Silicon Valley May Never Learn Its Lesson - The Atlantic   

Over and over during Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial, lawyers showed pictures of the FTX founder living his best life. There he was at the Super Bowl flanked by Katy Perry and Orlando Bloom. There he was on a private jet, sleeping with his hands folded. There he was onstage, in shorts and a T-shirt, with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. The very traits that made him a cause célèbre in Silicon Valley—his intellect, his obsession with scale, his story—turned into liabilities. This evening, after deliberating for just a few hours, a jury found him guilty of all seven charges he faced, including counts of wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering and securities fraud.

Bankman-Fried’s charges together carry a maximum sentence of 110 years. Judge Lewis Kaplan, who oversaw the trial, is set to determine his sentence in March. Outside of the courthouse this evening, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, Damian Williams, told reporters that “this kind of corruption is as old as time.” Mark S. Cohen, Bankman-Fried’s lawyer, said in a statement, “We respect the jury’s decision. But we are very disappointed with the result. Mr. Bankman-Fried maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.” He will likely appeal.

It’s a stunning turnaround for a man who sold a narrative that led his company, FTX, to be worth billions of dollars just one year ago. Stories undergird Silicon Valley, and Bankman-Fried was savvy enough to parlay his into what was, for a time, a wildly successful business. As a tech founder, “SBF” was straight out of central casting: unkempt, pedigreed, awkward in a way that has come to be a sign of brilliance. He replicated what investors, and the public, believed a founder should look like. But crucial to his narrative was the idea that he was a good guy, funneling his riches into causes such as effective-altruism that he believed would make the world a better place.

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Can America's weapons-makers adapt to 21st-century warfare? - The Economist   

ARMING UNCLE SAM is a great business. America’s latest defence budget earmarks $170bn for procurement and $145bn for research and development (R&D), most of which ends up with the handful of “prime” contractors, which deal directly with the Department of Defence (DoD). So will some of the $44bn in American military aid to Ukraine and a chunk of the extra defence spending by America’s European allies, which account for 5-10% of the primes’ sales. Although those sums do not increase at the same rate as, say, corporate IT expenditure, leaving less room for spectacular gains, arms manufacturers are also shielded from eye-watering losses by huge, decades-long contracts.

Thanks to a big shake-up at the end of the cold war, the industry is also highly concentrated. At a meeting in 1993, dubbed the “last supper”, William Perry, then President Bill Clinton’s deputy defence secretary, told industry bosses that excess capacity was no longer appropriate and that consolidation was in order. As a result, the ranks of the primes have thinned from more than 50 in 1950s America to six. The number of suppliers of satellites has declined from eight to four, of fixed-wing aircraft from eight to three and of tactical missiles from 13 to three.

Guaranteed custom and weak competition have helped American armsmakers’ shares comfortably outperform the broader stockmarket over the past 50 years. A paper published by the DoD in April found that between 2000 and 2019 defence contractors did better than civilian ones in terms of shareholder returns, return on assets and return on equity, among other financial measures. An increasingly unstable world means more money going to the armed forces—and to their suppliers. Total shareholder returns, including dividends, at primes such as General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman rose when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th (see chart 1).

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